Uganda’s path to the AFCON 2025 round of 16 remains open but extremely narrow after a 1–1 draw with neighbours Tanzania in Group C.
The Cranes earned their first point of the tournament in the East African derby played in Rabat, coming from behind to cancel out Simon Msuva’s first-half goal through substitute Karl Ikpeazu. However, Uganda missed a huge opportunity to claim all three points when Allan Okello failed to convert a stoppage-time penalty.
That missed chance means Uganda head into the final round of group matches with just one point, having earlier lost 3–1 to Tunisia in their opening fixture.
Current Group C Standings
Nigeria have six points and have qualified for the next round. Tunisia have three points, while Uganda and Tanzania each have one point.
Only the top two teams in each group qualify automatically for the round of 16, along with the four best third-placed teams across the tournament.
Uganda’s Qualification Scenarios
Uganda face a tough final match against group leaders Nigeria in Fez, while Tanzania take on Tunisia in the other Group C fixture. For the Cranes to progress, several factors must fall into place.
Uganda must beat Nigeria. A win is essential, as any other result will almost certainly eliminate the Cranes.
Tunisia must beat or draw with Tanzania. If Tanzania win, they would finish above Uganda, while a Tunisia victory or draw keeps Tanzania below or level with Uganda.
Goal difference and goals scored may matter. Even with three points, Uganda could still finish third, and their chances of qualifying as one of the best third-placed teams would then depend on how they compare with third-placed sides from other groups.
What It Means
Uganda no longer control their destiny fully. While victory over Nigeria is non-negotiable, the Cranes must also hope for favourable results elsewhere. The missed penalty against Tanzania has left no margin for error.
Still, qualification is not impossible, but it now requires a strong performance against one of Africa’s most successful side and a bit of luck on the final day.
