China has launched its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), setting out an ambitious roadmap to accelerate the country’s journey toward full socialist modernisation by 2035.
Adopted during the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held in Beijing from 20 to 23 October, the plan builds on past achievements while positioning the nation for future challenges. According to China Daily, it marks a critical phase in strengthening China’s economic foundations and promoting high-quality development.
Responding to Complex Global and Domestic Challenges
Experts say the new plan comes amid a more complicated global environment and growing domestic pressures — including weak demand, low business confidence, and risks in the property and financial sectors.
Zhang Jun, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities, said the plan must “anchor the 2035 goal” while providing forward-looking guidance that reflects both past progress and changing global dynamics.
He noted that the next five years will be crucial for advancing “new quality productive forces,” focusing on technology, digital transformation, and emerging industries. The plan will track measurable targets such as research spending, patents per capita, and the contribution of the digital economy to total output.
Focus on Innovation and the Digital Economy
The plan emphasises investment in basic research, breakthroughs in “bottleneck technologies,” and improved supply chain resilience. It also highlights developing the digital economy and emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, commercial spaceflight, low-altitude aviation, and deep-sea exploration.
Zhang added that fiscal policy will increasingly focus “on investing in people” — with greater spending on childcare, education, and social welfare — to support long-term domestic demand.
Boosting Domestic Demand and Reforms
Expanding domestic consumption and investment remains a central goal, particularly as global conditions remain uncertain. The services sector, which made up 46.1% of household spending in 2024, still has significant room to grow.
The 15th Five-Year Plan also coincides with over 300 reform measures adopted at the CPC’s third plenary session. These reforms aim to balance growth between state-owned and private enterprises, optimise fiscal relations between central and local governments, and strengthen institutions for sustainable development.
Balancing Growth, Stability, and Reform
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said China’s economy is transitioning “from high-speed growth to high-quality development.” He identified three main challenges — trade tensions, demographic shifts, and local fiscal constraints — alongside key opportunities such as deeper international partnerships, a unified national market, and innovation in human capital and technology.
He also called for continued fiscal and taxation reforms to align short-term debt control with long-term modernisation goals, while stabilising property and financial markets to maintain consumer confidence.
Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, summarised the plan’s foundation in four key areas — economy, reform, technology, and livelihoods — noting that “stability and innovation will remain the core drivers.”
A Roadmap to Inclusive and Resilient Growth
Analysts agree that the next five years will be about balancing short-term economic stability with long-term transformation. Luo summed it up: “We must accelerate new productive forces on the supply side and build a strong, consumption-driven economy on the demand side.”
