Uganda is positioning itself as an increasingly attractive investment destination, supported by steady economic growth, stable inflation, stronger foreign exchange reserves and the expected start of commercial oil production.
Economist Stella Otieno said Uganda’s economy had grown by more than six per cent in each of the past three financial years, while inflation remained within the Central Bank’s target range.
She made the remarks during an Equity Bank Uganda trade and investment webinar held ahead of the bank’s third Trade Mission in Uganda.
“Growth has been above six per cent for the previous three years. Inflation has been stable and under four per cent within the target, and we also have stable policy rates,” Otieno said.
The Trade Mission is scheduled for September 13 to 16 in Kampala and will bring together international, regional and local investors to explore business opportunities, establish partnerships and connect with Ugandan companies.
This year’s mission will focus on sectors including agriculture, particularly coffee, extractives, manufacturing, services and tourism.
Otieno said Uganda’s economic outlook could improve significantly once commercial oil production begins.
Real GDP growth was estimated at about six per cent in the 2025/26 financial year, while inflation stood at four per cent in July, below the medium-term target of five per cent.
The Central Bank Rate has remained at 9.75 per cent since October 2024, giving businesses greater certainty when making long-term investment decisions.
Uganda’s foreign exchange reserves have also increased significantly, rising from about $3.3 billion in January 2025 to $6.7 billion by June 2026.
According to Otieno, the stronger reserve position and relative stability of the shilling provide reassurance to investors concerned about currency and external-sector risks.
“The macroeconomic environment is favourable,” she said.
She, however, noted that Uganda was preparing for a major economic transformation, with the oil industry expected to play a central role.
Commercial oil production could push economic growth to between eight and 10 per cent in the 2026/27 financial year, with the possibility of Uganda recording double-digit growth as production gathers momentum.
Oil revenues are also expected to improve Uganda’s fiscal and external positions.
However, Otieno said the government would need to carefully manage its finances and public debt, noting that the fiscal deficit stood at an estimated 7.1 per cent at the end of the 2025/26 financial year.
Uganda’s current account deficit, estimated at 6.5 per cent of GDP, was also described as manageable.
Much of the deficit is linked to imports by private companies involved in oil and infrastructure projects. Once oil production begins, increased export earnings are expected to help reduce the pressure on the current account.
While oil is expected to transform Uganda’s economy, Otieno said agriculture, particularly coffee, remains an important investment opportunity.
Coffee and gold are among Uganda’s biggest sources of foreign exchange earnings, with Uganda becoming Africa’s largest coffee exporter in 2025.
Coffee export earnings reached $2.2 billion in the 12 months to June 2026, highlighting opportunities across the entire value chain.
These include coffee production, processing, packaging, logistics and export.
Otieno said investors could also benefit from moving beyond the export of raw commodities by investing in value addition, agro-processing and manufacturing.
For Equity Bank, attracting investment requires more than positive economic indicators.
Catherine Psomgen, the bank’s Director of Public Sector and Social Investments, said investors also needed reliable information, supportive policies, access to financing, trustworthy local partners and financial institutions that understand their business plans.
“At Equity Bank, we see our role as extending beyond traditional banking,” Psomgen said.
She said the bank aims to support investors by connecting them to financing, markets, information, technology and strategic partnerships.
With Equity Group operating in several African markets, Psomgen said the bank could also help companies entering Uganda access opportunities beyond the domestic market by using the country as a gateway to East and Central Africa.
Rita Nabateregga, Uganda Investment Authority’s Deputy Director for Investment Promotion, said Uganda was entering an important phase of industrialisation.
She said the government wants to use the country’s agricultural and mineral resources to create jobs, increase local value addition and reduce dependence on the export of raw materials.
The focus, therefore, is shifting from simply identifying Uganda’s natural resources to building competitive industries around them.
Potential investment opportunities include agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, logistics, energy, mining, infrastructure, tourism, services and technology.
The key challenge, however, will be ensuring that increased investment translates into productive businesses, employment, local value addition and wider economic transformation.
As Uganda prepares for oil production and continues to expand its economy, investors are increasingly looking beyond the country’s resources to the opportunities created by a growing market.
For Equity Bank, the next phase of Uganda’s economic story will depend on how effectively capital, technology, expertise and partnerships are brought together to turn the country’s resources into sustainable businesses and long-term economic growth.
